Mission Not Accomplished

The text of the National Intelligence Estimate on terrorism answers the question posed yesterday: what has five+ years of the “war on terror,” hundreds of thousands of lives, and hundreds of billions of dollars accomplished? Constraint. The Estimate (only the Key Judgments portion of which has been declassified) “assess[es] that greatly increased worldwide counterterrorism efforts over the past five years have constrained the ability of al-Qa’ida to attack the US Homeland again and have led terrorist groups to perceive the Homeland as a harder target to strike than on 9/11.” (emphasis supplied) Courtesy of the New Oxford Thesaurus of English, to constrain means to restrict, limit, curb, check, restrain, confine, impede, hamstring, frustrate, stifle . . . That’s it. Such feeble results should compel reassessment of our strategy and adaptation to the apparent constraints on our greater success. Instead, this is what we get: “White House officials said [the threat assessment] bolstered the Bush administration’s argument that Iraq was the “central front” in the war on terror, because that was where Qaeda operatives were directly attacking American forces.” White House officials did not address the next logical question: Since they did not have a viable Iraqi presence before 9/11, why are Qaeda operatives in Iraq? To paraphrase George Mallory’s explanation for why climbed Everest, “because we’re there.” We plowed the furrows, planted the seeds, and provided the environment for al-Qa’ida in Iraq to thrive and become an ongoing threat to U.S. security. The threat assessment “assess[es] that al-Qa’ida will probably seek to leverage the contacts and capabilities of al-Qa’ida in Iraq (AQI), its most visible and capable affiliate and the only one known to have expressed a desire to attack the Homeland. In addition, we assess that its association with AQI helps al-Qa’ida to energize the broader Sunni extremist community, raise resources, and to recruit and indoctrinate operatives, including for Homeland attacks.”

Let’s sum it up:

  • Pros
    • al-Qa’ida operations constrained
  • Cons
    • al-Qa’ida organization rejuvenated and thriving in Pakistan
    • al-Qa’ida in Iraq created, and its abilities strengthened through years of fighting U.S. forces
    • Lebanese Hizballah may be more likely to attack U.S. if it threatens Hizballah or Iran

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